Friday 9 March 2012

Predicting The Retail Future

Respected analyst Deloittes Access Economics has come up with predictions of retail growth that remind us of a snail taking a small step but which do have some trends of interest.

A rise of 2.5% per year over the next 4 years is not likely to keep up with population growth  and the increase is even less for categories like department stores, footwear and clothing. Two categories will rise above the trend however. They are household goods which are expected to benefit from lower interest rates and more activity in property, and the mysterious "Other" category which includes online retailers (no surprises there) and sectors like Chemists who will benefit from increased health spending.

The problem with these predictions is that they are a bit like sitting around waiting for grass to grow. We don't know of too many retailers who would be comfortable with that.