The lag
between retailer experiences and economy-wide hard data can be frustratingly long
but there appears little doubt that the recent sales drop experienced by market
traders is being confirmed by official figures.
The last ABS
figures showed that after some positive signs in June retail sales reduced to
flat in July. And now it looks like August was significantly worse. The
National Australia Bank’s Cashless Retail Sales Index released today shows a
broad-based slowdown in August.
The yearly
increase in cashless retail spending was measured at 7.7% in July but down to
5.3% in August and that single month’s decline is particularly pronounced. This index only tracks non-cash (essentially
card) spending but is considered a fair guide to overall spending.
NAB said - “The
decline in the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index in August follows slower (but
positive) growth in June and July after faster growth in April and May. Based
on movements in the NAB cashless spending index and our data mapping
techniques, ABS retail trade is expected to decline by 0.5% mom in August which
would be the weakest monthly growth rate since March 2013.”
“You ain’t seen nothing yet!”
Commentators
are calling the latest figures a blow to the expectations of governments and
the Reserve Bank. And if the experience of traders so far in September is any
guide ( see our article The Current State Of Market Trading Is Not Good) then “You
ain’t seen nothing yet!”
Have Your Say – click here.
